IOL: Voter apathy to hit ANC hard in poll

http://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/voter-apathy-to-hit-anc-hard-in-poll-1.1063147

Voter apathy to hit ANC hard in poll

May 1 2011 at 08:01pm
By CHRISTELLE TERREBLANCHE

Independent Newspapers

In three weeks, the ANC may have to face the fact that its dwindling support among the total voting-age population has been pushed below the one-third margin. Photo: Independent Newspapers

In three weeks, the ANC may have to face the fact that its dwindling support among the total voting-age population has been pushed below the one-third margin.

Since 1994, the ruling party’s support among all eligible voters has dropped steeply, from 53.8 percent to 38.8 percent in 2009.

Although the ANC has won all national elections with a convincing two-thirds majority, those who become disaffected tend to stay at home rather than vote for another party, according to political analyst for the Institute for Security Studies Collette Herzenberg.

The declining share is further amplified by the fact that between 4.5 and 9 million South Africans have simply not bothered to register as voters over the past 15 years.

Given that the last census was in 2001, there is currently no accurate estimate of the entire voting-age population. These two trends, along with the low turnout of registered voters during previous local government elections, makes it likely that there will be a further slide in overall support for the ANC.

The last two municipal polls saw only 48 percent of registered voters make their mark.

Despite the lack of accurate data, this could mean that anything between 12 million and 20 million eligible South Africans may choose not to exercise their right to vote on election day, May 18.

The latest voter drives from the IEC bumped up the number of registered voters to 24 million, indicating at the very least 4.5 million “missing voters” – but this could be as many as 7 million, according to some estimates.

The one wild card in this month’s election appears to be the growing politically active population under 29, who are now disproportionately represented on the voters’ roll. About 73 percent of them have registered over the last few years, according to the Afrobarometer. Although they make up about 23 percent of eligible voters, they make up 27 percent of all registered voters.

Herzenberg and others’ research shows they generally lack the close party affiliation of previous generations. It is, therefore, these young adults who hold the key to new voting patterns and election outcomes.

A 2007 Community Survey conducted by Stats SA put the population at 48 million, and a mid-year estimate in 2010 took the figure up to nearly 50 million. This means that just under half of the total population are now registered as voters, instead of the probable 60 percent estimated to be older than 18.

This would put the number of eligible, potentially registered voters closer to 30 million than the current 24 million who are registered. Herzenberg says in a chapter of the 2009 book Zunami! that indications are that the population is growing at a faster pace than the growth of the voters’ roll of 27.6 percent.

While 65.9 percent of those who voted in 2009 came out in support of the ANC, they represented less than 40 percent of the total voting-age population – shorthand for those who are eligible to make their mark. The 2009 elections saw a slightly higher turnout of registered voters after years of slow decline.

Indications are that, among disaffected communities, there is greater organisation to stay away from the May 18 polls as a form of protest than in previous elections.

For instance, shack-dweller organisation Abahlali BaseMjondolo is campaigning on a “No land No housing No vote” ticket for a mass stayaway.

Although the DA believes it would be able to give the ANC a proper run for its money in more cities and towns than those where coloured and white populations dominate, Herzenberg’s research shows that former ANC supporters choose overwhelmingly to withdraw from the democratic process, rather than vote for alternatives.

Some disaffected voters did come out of their self-imposed exile from the ballot box in 2009 to vote for Cope, but the infighting in the party may see them turn their backs on the polls once more.

Herzenberg says that although too little data is available to adequately see trends in local elections, there is enough evidence to show that the stayaway tendency is enhanced at municipal level.

“People don’t participate because they don’t have anywhere to cast their votes when they become disaffected with the ANC as you would expect in a normal democracy, but you rather see complete withdrawal in growing numbers,” she said.

A recent survey by the Human Sciences Research Council showed that about half of those who feel alienated from the ANC would nevertheless vote for the ruling party.

On the flip side this means that another half of dissatisfied supporters are not planning to cast their ballot for the ANC.

Support for the opposition has also declined since 1994 if measured against the total voting population – from 32 percent to 17 percent in 2004, yet increasing again to 20 percent in 2009. The ANC’s overall share of all voters, however, continued to drop slightly countrywide in 2009 except for a significant increase in KwaZulu-Natal.

The growth of pro-ANC votes was less than the growth of opposition votes in 2009. The DA increased its total votes by over a million in 2009 – a whopping 52.5 percent increase on its 2004 performance. – Political Bureau